From TikTok to LLMs: Holiday 2025 Shopping Predictions

As the holiday countdown begins, one thing is clear: 2025 is not business as usual. Shopping journeys are shifting, consumers are re-defining value, and digital discovery looks nothing like it did even two years ago. Team Bespoke predicts 3–5% YOY growth this holiday season, but the playbook for winning looks very different than it used to.

Here are the trends every brand, retailer, and marketer should be ready for.

1. Shoppers Start Earlier Than Ever

Holiday shopping research will kick off in August and September, riding the wave of back-to-school browsing. That means discovery matters early: creator content, CTV ads, Meta placements, and even product reviews seeded well before November 1st can make or break the season.

Circle November 11th (Singles’ Day) and November 20th as the real start line for promotions this year.

2. Consumers Say They’ll Spend More

About 22% of shoppers plan to spend more than last year, with Gen Z and Millennials leading the charge. Half expect to spend about the same, and only 18% expect to cut back.

But it’s not just about the size of the cart — it’s about what influences the purchase.

3. Value + Connection = Conversion

Even cost-conscious consumers are choosing values over price. In fact, 61% of shoppers say they prioritize personal values when choosing gifts That means brands must tell a clear, authentic story that runs from discovery to checkout.

Discounts will still drive urgency (average markdowns will hover in the 25–30% range), but messaging that blends scarcity, value, and emotional connection will matter more than ever.

4. Shopping Journeys Are Being Rewritten

• LLMs are the new product discovery engines. Already, 5% of shoppers start their search with an AI chat assistant — and that number doubles for Gen Z. Expect 40%+ of shoppers to use AI at some point in their journey

• SEO looks different. Google search results are being reshaped by AI summaries and Reddit threads, not just traditional rankings

• TikTok drives Amazon. A single TikTok purchase can spark two Amazon purchases, making TikTok not just a discovery platform but a conversion catalyst

5. Don’t Forget In-Store

For every $1 Gen Z spends online, they’ll spend $3 more in-store this holiday season. That makes brick-and-mortar synergy — and Amazon tie-ins — essential.

6. Amazon Plays Its Own Game

Mark your calendar for November 20th. Last year, Amazon saw revenue spike one day earlier than expected thanks to a primetime football game. Expect history to repeat itself.

Prime Day (likely the week of October 8th) will again act as a retail catalyst across the entire industry, not just Amazon sellers.

7. Last-Minute & Post-Christmas Sales Still Matter

Despite all the early-shopping buzz, 76% of consumers say they’re holding out for Cyber Week deals.

But don’t ignore the procrastinators: gift cards, virtual products, and “buy now, deliver later” options are still a huge revenue lever in December. And when the wrapping paper is recycled, after-Christmas sales will bring shoppers right back — especially those armed with gift cards.

The Bottom Line

Holiday 2025 will be defined by early discovery, AI-driven search, value-based storytelling, and a delicate dance between Amazon, DTC, and in-store.

Brands that prepare now — with coordinated content, smart promotional timing, and LLM-ready visibility — will be the ones consumers discover, trust, and choose.

👉 Want to know how consumers will really shop this holiday season? We’ve created a short PDF with all our insights + predictions — give it a read and let us know what you think.

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Team Bespoke is a Partnerships Agency, focusing on Affiliate, Collaborative PR and Creator Partnerships on behalf of the amazing brands we represent.

We help brands grow through Strategic Partnerships that drive real results. That includes:

• Affiliate Partnerships to boost revenue and ROI

• Influencer & Ambassador Collaborations that amplify brand voice

• TikTok Shop Affiliate Management built for full-funnel creator commerce

• Media & PR Partnerships to build buzz and drive awareness

• Event & Experiential Partnerships that create memorable moments

• Bespoke Partnerships tailored to your goals and growth stage

We believe happy work fuels strong relationships and strong relationships fuel growth, all while making a measurable impact. Our clients’ victories are ours too — and we’ve built a business + the best team around these beliefs.

Want to learn more about Team Bespoke and our service offerings, reach out to Liz@teambespoke.com for more info.

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